It has been a few weeks since the group known as the Islamic state of Iraq and Al-Shaam(ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant(ISIL; now known simply as the Islamic State) captured Iraq's second largest city of Mosul. That was just the beginning of their Blitzkrieg which saw multiple towns and areas in both Iraq and Syria fall to them in the coming weeks, including Saddam Hussein's birthplace of Tikrit.
The Indian media began to aggressively pick up this story when it was realized that dozens of Indian nurses had been held in Tikrit when the Insurgents took the city. Since then there has been a lot of effort put in by the establishment to locate and somehow secure the release of these nurses in Iraq. But compared to what I believe is coming our way, this is a very trivial matter.
Since all of this took place, the group has transformed and is now refered to as the Islamic State or simply, the Caliphate, under the leadership of 'Caliph Ibrahim'(previously known as Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi). This is a very significant development as there hasn't really been any de facto State claiming to be a Caliphate for almost a century now. This Caliphate or Islamic State has hundreds of square kilometers of territory under its writ and is steadily expanding; according to some estimates it also has tens of thousands of fighters, both from the middle east and from elsewhere, who are armed to the teeth and have also received extensive training.
This group has been extremely effective in destroying/demoralizing the forces of the Iraqi State, and now effectively controls more territory than the Iraqi government. It has billions of dollars in funds and now has control over Oil wells, Refineries, Air bases, Markets, Factories etc. It provides Judicial Services, Educational Services, Welfare Services and much much more. Thus, in short, it has truly come to resemble a real State, rather than a rag-tag Insurgent group.
Now let me get straight to how our lives in India and the rest of South Asia might dramatically be affected in the coming months and years. It is my calculation that in the coming few weeks and months, the Caliphate will continue to steadily advance and grow its support base and Military strength. Deir ez zour province in Syria and probably all of the Sunni parts of Iraq will have almost no resistance to the Caliphate left. Soon enough, if there is no major Iranian or US intervention, Baghdad will itself fall to the Islamic State. Thus will begin collapse of States across the middle east one by one on a steady basis(again, assuming that there is no major Iranian or US intervention soon). This will likely make oil prices skyrocket. India will face a lot of problems. Our currency will depreciate. Gold will rise. Inflation will rise. The common man will suffer. The Economy will stall. But that could just be the beginning.
If the Iranians or the Americans let Baghdad fall, sooner or later, the government of Bashar al Assad might also begin facing massive blitz-style attacks by the Caliphate. Jordan will also see encroachments upon its territory. And if things continue this way, several Middle Eastern states would soon be ruled by the Caliphate within a few short years. Israel would not be able to defeat such a Caliphate. The Iranians would face a full-scale Salafist-Jihadist invasion. In fact, Iran would be the only real barrier between the Caliphate and India; the Pakistanis would not be able to offer much resistance and many of their Generals could actually defect to the Caliphate. And then, if Iran and Pakistan fall, we could have the Caliphate on our doorstep here in India.
Thus the Islamic State that is currently fighting in Syria and Iraq could actually one day be at our borders, especially if its growing power is not checked by those who can actually truly challenge it. India could one day face a much larger, vibrant, stronger and relentless Caliphate. It would be a very very difficult thing to defeat such a Violent Mammoth entity. Our State could collapse. The project of the Indian republic could crash even before completing a Century. Our Freedoms and Liberty would vanish. The Populace would be at the mercy of the Invaders. But this is all Hypothetical. We can actually do our bit in this situation. Instead of limiting our role to just trying to rescue Indian citizens from Iraq, we must do whatever we can to prop up the Iraqi Government. We must provide whatever help we can so that the Jihadists do not overrun Baghdad. In conclusion, we must be brave and Protect the future of our Country and its people.
The Indian media began to aggressively pick up this story when it was realized that dozens of Indian nurses had been held in Tikrit when the Insurgents took the city. Since then there has been a lot of effort put in by the establishment to locate and somehow secure the release of these nurses in Iraq. But compared to what I believe is coming our way, this is a very trivial matter.
Since all of this took place, the group has transformed and is now refered to as the Islamic State or simply, the Caliphate, under the leadership of 'Caliph Ibrahim'(previously known as Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi). This is a very significant development as there hasn't really been any de facto State claiming to be a Caliphate for almost a century now. This Caliphate or Islamic State has hundreds of square kilometers of territory under its writ and is steadily expanding; according to some estimates it also has tens of thousands of fighters, both from the middle east and from elsewhere, who are armed to the teeth and have also received extensive training.
This group has been extremely effective in destroying/demoralizing the forces of the Iraqi State, and now effectively controls more territory than the Iraqi government. It has billions of dollars in funds and now has control over Oil wells, Refineries, Air bases, Markets, Factories etc. It provides Judicial Services, Educational Services, Welfare Services and much much more. Thus, in short, it has truly come to resemble a real State, rather than a rag-tag Insurgent group.
Now let me get straight to how our lives in India and the rest of South Asia might dramatically be affected in the coming months and years. It is my calculation that in the coming few weeks and months, the Caliphate will continue to steadily advance and grow its support base and Military strength. Deir ez zour province in Syria and probably all of the Sunni parts of Iraq will have almost no resistance to the Caliphate left. Soon enough, if there is no major Iranian or US intervention, Baghdad will itself fall to the Islamic State. Thus will begin collapse of States across the middle east one by one on a steady basis(again, assuming that there is no major Iranian or US intervention soon). This will likely make oil prices skyrocket. India will face a lot of problems. Our currency will depreciate. Gold will rise. Inflation will rise. The common man will suffer. The Economy will stall. But that could just be the beginning.
If the Iranians or the Americans let Baghdad fall, sooner or later, the government of Bashar al Assad might also begin facing massive blitz-style attacks by the Caliphate. Jordan will also see encroachments upon its territory. And if things continue this way, several Middle Eastern states would soon be ruled by the Caliphate within a few short years. Israel would not be able to defeat such a Caliphate. The Iranians would face a full-scale Salafist-Jihadist invasion. In fact, Iran would be the only real barrier between the Caliphate and India; the Pakistanis would not be able to offer much resistance and many of their Generals could actually defect to the Caliphate. And then, if Iran and Pakistan fall, we could have the Caliphate on our doorstep here in India.
Thus the Islamic State that is currently fighting in Syria and Iraq could actually one day be at our borders, especially if its growing power is not checked by those who can actually truly challenge it. India could one day face a much larger, vibrant, stronger and relentless Caliphate. It would be a very very difficult thing to defeat such a Violent Mammoth entity. Our State could collapse. The project of the Indian republic could crash even before completing a Century. Our Freedoms and Liberty would vanish. The Populace would be at the mercy of the Invaders. But this is all Hypothetical. We can actually do our bit in this situation. Instead of limiting our role to just trying to rescue Indian citizens from Iraq, we must do whatever we can to prop up the Iraqi Government. We must provide whatever help we can so that the Jihadists do not overrun Baghdad. In conclusion, we must be brave and Protect the future of our Country and its people.
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