Since Independence in 1947, India and Indians have been the butt of Jokes regarding their large family sizes and high Fertility. Indians themselves have for generations recognized the fact that one of the few things the country was good at was making babies and a much touted proof of this was the statement that India had the second largest population in the world(soon to be the largest).
But things have changed drastically over the past twenty years or so. As of 2014, 23 Indian States and Union Territories have achieved fertility rates of 2.1 or below. Only a minority of States and UTs now remain above the 2.1 mark. And why, you may ask, is this 2.1 mark so important? The answer is simple. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered to be the rate at which a population will essentially just replace itself and remain stagnant; thus 2.1 is called the replacement level Fertility rate. A fertility rate lower than 2.1 has traditionally lead to a trend towards declining population, while a fertility rate above 2.1 has done the opposite.
The Overall fertility rate for India according to recent estimates is around 2.4, but this number is likely to shrink in the coming years. If past trends are any indicator, by 2020, India's overall fertility rate could be at replacement level or below, and that would signal the end of the era of Population explosion in India and even though that wouldn't obviously mean an immediate end to the growth of India's population, it would entail that we will gradually have a turnaround in our population growth in the coming decades.
Hitting replacement level fertility will mean that we will begin to see a much lesser proportion of dependents as people have less and less kids; we'd also see an enormous youth bulge which will continue for several decades and hopefully provide India's Economy with a significant Demographic dividend. But India must also prepare for what will inevitably come after that, that is, a period of Population decline, during which we'd see a swift rise in the number of aged people and a sharp decline in the working age population. If India is not careful, the boon of Demographic dividend could then soon turn into the bane of Demographic doom.
But things have changed drastically over the past twenty years or so. As of 2014, 23 Indian States and Union Territories have achieved fertility rates of 2.1 or below. Only a minority of States and UTs now remain above the 2.1 mark. And why, you may ask, is this 2.1 mark so important? The answer is simple. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered to be the rate at which a population will essentially just replace itself and remain stagnant; thus 2.1 is called the replacement level Fertility rate. A fertility rate lower than 2.1 has traditionally lead to a trend towards declining population, while a fertility rate above 2.1 has done the opposite.
The Overall fertility rate for India according to recent estimates is around 2.4, but this number is likely to shrink in the coming years. If past trends are any indicator, by 2020, India's overall fertility rate could be at replacement level or below, and that would signal the end of the era of Population explosion in India and even though that wouldn't obviously mean an immediate end to the growth of India's population, it would entail that we will gradually have a turnaround in our population growth in the coming decades.
Hitting replacement level fertility will mean that we will begin to see a much lesser proportion of dependents as people have less and less kids; we'd also see an enormous youth bulge which will continue for several decades and hopefully provide India's Economy with a significant Demographic dividend. But India must also prepare for what will inevitably come after that, that is, a period of Population decline, during which we'd see a swift rise in the number of aged people and a sharp decline in the working age population. If India is not careful, the boon of Demographic dividend could then soon turn into the bane of Demographic doom.
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